22-26 September, 2025
Welcome to this week’s JMP Report,
Weekly Trade Commentary
Last week saw only 4 stocks traded on PNGX with a total trading value of K4,889,991.80. BSP traded good volumes, 44,256 shares steady at K23.55. KSL traded the largest volumes of the week, 835,788 shares closing 7t lower at K3.80. STO traded good volumes also, 31,869 shares closing at K21.00. KAM traded the least number of volumes during the week, 1,080 shares changed hands higher by 1t at K1.87.
WEEKLY MARKET REPORT | 22 September, 2025 – 26 September, 2025
| STOCK | WEEKLY VOLUME |
CLOSING PRICE | VALUE | BID | OFFER | CHANGE | % CHANGE |
| BSP | 44,256 | 23.55 | 1,042,228.80 | 23.55 | – | (0.07) | (1.81%) |
| KSL | 835,788 | 3.80 | 3,175,994.40 | 3.70 | 3.93 | – | – |
| STO | 31,869 | 21.00 | 669,749 | – | 22.00 | 0.01 | 0.54% |
| NEM | – | 181.00 | – | – | – | – | – |
| KAM | 1,080 | 1.87 | 2,020 | 1.87 | 2.00 | – | – |
| NGP | – | 1.35 | – | 1.35 | – | – | – |
| CCP | – | 4.65 | – | 3.20 | 4.65 | – | – |
| CPL | – | 0.40 | – | 0.40 | 0.65 | – | – |
| SST | – | 50.00 | – | – | 50.00 | – | – |
| TOTAL | 4,889,991.80 | (0.02%) |
Key takeaways:
- BSP and KSL continue to dominate total trading values with over 86% combined between the 2 stocks.
- On the 19th of September (Last Friday), BSP paid their HY 2025 interim dividend, 50t/share.
- This week STO and KSL will be paying there HY 2025 interim dividends, on the 1st and 2nd of October respectively. STO will be paying K0.559/share and KSL K0.126/share.
- CGA – Results of PNG Air Special Meeting for Shareholders dated 22 September2025. Download >>
– This is based on CGA seeking up to K20 mil via equity raising at a price of 2t/share proposing up to one billion (1,000,000,000) new ordinary shares (New Shares).
– The issuance would give preference to existing minority shareholders. After that, any unsubscribed shares would be offered to new investors (“sophisticated investors”) with minimum investments of PGK 250,000.
– Appointment of Weathermen Capital Advisors Limited as agent and broker. - Market Announcement Newmont: NEM – First Gold Pour at the Ahafo North Project. Download >>
- Market Announcement: NEM – Update – Dividend/Distribution
Download >> Note: NEM dividends will be paid put today dated 29.09.25
WEEKLY YIELD CHART | 22 September, 2025 – 26 September, 2025
| STOCK | NUMBER ISSUED OF SHARES |
MARKET CAP |
2023 INTERIM DIV | 2023 FINAL DIV | 2024 INTERIM DIV | 2024 FINAL DIV | 2025 INTERIM DIV | YIELD % LTM |
| BSP | 467,219,979 | 11,003,030,505 | K0.370 | K1.060 | K1.210 | K1.210 | K0.500 | 7.67% |
| KSL | 287,949,279 | 1,094,207,260 | K0.100 | K0.160 | K0.106 | K1.155 | K0.126 | 7.39% |
| STO | 3,247,772,961 | 68,203,232,181 | K0.310 | K0.660 | k0.506 | K0.414 | K0.600 | 4.83% |
| NEM* | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KAM | 50,693,986 | 94,797,754 | K0.120 | – | – | – | – | 17.11% |
| NGP | 45,890,700 | 61,952,445 | K0.030 | – | K0.120 | K0.120 | – | 8.89% |
| CCP | 307,931,332 | 1,431,880,674 | K0.110 | K0.130 | K0.121 | K0.121 | K0.121 | 5.20% |
| CPL | 206,277,911 | 82,511,164 | K0.050 | – | – | – | – | – |
| SST | 31,008,237 | 1,550,411,850 | K0.350 | K0.600 | K0.300 | K0.300 | K0.400 | 1.40% |
| TOTAL | 83,522,023,854 | 5.14% |
a LTM = Last Twelve Months. We have calculated yields based on most recently declared
interim and final dividends.
* NEM pays quarterly dividends. We have added last 4 payments at current FX rates.
Dividend yield – is calculated by dividing a company’s annual dividends per share by its current share price and expressing the result as a percentage.
What we have been reading
Santos Ltd (STO.AX) | Buy
XRG-STO retrospective; share price sugges ts value. Maintain Buy.
CITI’S TAKE The collapse of the XRG-STO transaction highlights the persistent execution risks in Australian energy M&A. While the market had already been pricing a relatively low likelihood of completion, the breakdown emphasises the difficulty of balancing political sensitivities, regulatory hurdles and shareholder protections. We think the sticking points were less about due diligence and more about negotiating risk allocation. These factors, we believe, while not insurmountable in isolation, collectively impacted the Consortium’s confidence. With the deal off the table, we turn our focus back to STO fundamentals. We forecast a solid production outlook supported by Barossa and Pikka, moderating growth capex post-2026, and strong FCF generation. On our numbers, investors are effectively paying for Base Business and Committed Growth while getting Speculative Growth (Papua LNG, Dorado, and Narrabri), for free. We lower our TP to A$7.50/sh reflecting our risked DCF and maintain our Buy rating.
Deal failure reflects risk allocation challenges — We understand from feedback from the company that the negotiations between the XRG Consortium and STO may have come unstuck over three key factors 1) PNG capital gains tax risk, 2) the enforceability of domestic supply obligations in the SIA and 3) the sequencing of FIRB/shareholder approvals (details within). STO had lobbied for strong shareholder protections that were ultimately resisted by the Consortium.
No issues identified in the due diligence process – fundamentals remain intact — Contrary to speculation, issues such as the DLNG methane leak or potential PNG LNG woes were not reason for XRG withdrawing its offer. STO production outlook remains strong at ~120mmboe p.a. from 2026–2030 driven by Barossa and Pikka, which have been further de-risked since the initial offer was made in June.
Attractive FCF and valuation support — We forecast US$11.5bn FCF between 2026–2030 (~0.8x market cap). At the current share price, investors are paying for the Base Business plus Committed Growth and get optionality on Papua LNG, Dorado and Narrabri. Our risked DCF implies a ~12% upside to the current price.
Earnings and valuation revisions — We make modest earnings revisions after adjusting for Barossa first gas timing and reported lease assets and liabilities. Our risked DCF is broadly unchanged. We reflect a TP commensurate with our risked DCF from previous deal completion expectations.
At current levels, investors are paying for the Base Business and Committed Growth*, while gaining upside exposure to projects such as Papua LNG, Dorado and Narrabri, for free.
Please feel free to reach out for your investment needs.
Regards,
JMP Securities Team
JMP Securities
a. Level 3, ADF Haus, Musgrave St., Port Moresby NCD Papua New Guinea
p. PO Box 2064, Port Moresby NCD Papua New Guinea
Managing Director
Email: lars.mortensen@jmpmarkets.com
Ph: +675 7200 2233
Mobile: +675 7056 5124
Head of Equity Capital Markets
Email: nathan.chang@jmpmarkets.com
Ph: +675 7167 3223
Mobile: +61 422 113 630